Florida's red wave, Trump or DeSantis 2024?, state revenue beats expectations, and more...
November 11, 2022 — This Week's Top Stories in Florida
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Here’s the latest from Florida…
Purple no more: Florida’s “red wave” materializes
Widespread expectations of a national “red wave” carried by Republicans in hundreds of races throughout the U.S. failed to transpire on Election Day. Instead, the GOP posted lackluster results, losing one U.S. senate seat, one governorship, and control of the House remaining uncomfortably close. It was not the result pundits predicted and Republicans had hoped for. Across the nation, in countless races where Republicans were expected to be competitive, they lost by wide margins. But the narrative was entirely different in Florida, where the nation’s once-largest swing state turned deep red. GOP-backed candidates for State Offices won by commanding leads – likely thanks to the strength of Gov. Ron DeSantis at the top of the ballot in the gubernatorial race and weak opponents put forth by Florida Democrats. Republican incumbent Gov. DeSantis sailed past former governor and former Democratic congressman Charlie Crist by 19.4%; incumbent Attorney General Ashley Moody walloped Democratic former state attorney Aramis Ayala by 21%; incumbent Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis pounced one-term Democratic state Representative Adam Hattersley by 18.9%; and Senate President Wilton Simpson coasted to victory over relatively unknown Democrat Naomi Blemur by 18.6% to become Agriculture Commissioner. The results were a far cry from the 2018 midterms – the last time the state’s cabinet offices were up for election – when then-candidate for governor Ron DeSantis narrowly defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum by 33,000 votes and only 6,000 votes separated the two candidates for Agriculture Commissioner, which ultimately went to Democrat Nikki Fried after a manual recount. Similarly, only 6% and 3.4% separated the candidates for Attorney General and Chief Financial Officer in 2018, respectively. In stark contrast, Gov. DeSantis' double-digit victory was the biggest win for a Republican governor in the state since the late 19th century. Now, it is apparent that the once-competitive state is out of reach for Democrats, even in traditionally blue Miami-Dade County that flipped red for the first time in two decades. The momentum began in 2020, when former President Donald Trump won and state, and solidified last year when registered Republican voters surpassed Democrats for the first time ever. The Florida Democratic Party is now left grappling with how they will even become a competitive political alternative to the GOP in future election cycles.
Republicans will begin the 2023 legislative session having gained a two-thirds supermajority in the State Senate and State House. The GOP’s success reverberated down the ballot forcing Democrats to lose well-funded races for county commission, city council, and school boards that initially looked optimistic for Dems. And many of those seats, were lost by tens of thousands of votes. Tuesday's victory for the GOP was a reckoning for the Florida Democratic Party, losing every single State Senate race that was deemed competitive – six – and losing State House races that were supposed to be safe. All nine Miami-area Republicans vying for seats in the state legislature won their races and the GOP flipped three U.S. House districts in their favor, which is crucial to tilting the balance of power toward Republicans. State Democratic voters lagged in showing up to the polls, with only about half casting ballots while about two-thirds of Republicans turned out. The strong showing for Republicans in the state will further bolster Gov. DeSantis by granting him nearly unchecked power to pursue bold policies that will likely skew further to the right. He will likely use the next two years to further his national profile by enacting legislation that aims to galvanize the Republican base as he, with near certainty, transitions to a candidate in the race for president.
Trump and DeSantis at odds
With the midterm election now behind us and Gov. Ron DeSantis successfully securing a second term as the state’s chief executive, the conversation is shifting to the 2024 general election and whether the governor will make a bid for the White House. Gov. DeSantis has been long speculated to run for president in 2024 with the rumors ramping up considerably following Tuesday’s landslide victory. However, DeSantis could have a possible obstacle to overcome: former President Donald Trump, who is expected to enter the race and teased a “very big announcement” on November 15. While no formal declaration has been made by either potential candidate, both Trump and DeSantis are already treating one another like primary challengers. Last weekend, the two held dueling rallies in Florida just 48 hours before the midterm voting deadline approaches. The former president campaigned in Miami with Senator Marco Rubio and other Republicans while the incumbent governor was on the west coast of the state. DeSantis was reportedly not invited to the event with Trump. Meanwhile, the former president has encouraged his supporters to vote for Republican candidates on the ballot this election, including Sen. Marco Rubio, but has not endorsed Gov. DeSantis. Trump explained that the governor never asked for an endorsement. At a rally in Pennsylvania, Trump unveiled a new nickname for DeSantis: “Ron DeSanctimonious.” However, post-Election Day, the former president has escalated tensions, threatening the governor to stay out of the 2024 presidential race. “I would tell you things about him that won’t be very flattering – I know more about him than anybody – other than, perhaps, his wife,” Trump said in a recent interview. Previously, the 45th president said in an interview last year about DeSantis, “If I faced him, I’d beat him like I would beat everyone else.” With a Republican squabble already apparent among two likely contenders, the party is concerned that it could lead to wider divisions within the GOP, threatening future electoral hopes in 2024 and beyond.
Who will it be: Trump or DeSantis 2024?
Tuesday’s election results showed former President Donald Trump’s hand-picked, endorsed candidates up and down the ballot performed below expectations, giving pause to the GOP on whether they should embrace an expected 2024 presidential run by the 45th president. Meanwhile, Republican incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis led a red wave throughout Florida, cruising to victory with a comfortable 19.4% margin over his challenger and likely fueling momentum in other down ballot races. As Gov. DeSantis’ political status emerged stronger post-Election Day, Trump appeared as baggage weighing down the aspirations of the GOP. As votes are still being tallied in several states, Donald Trump wasted no time going after his possible primary opponent. The former Republican president criticized DeSantis of playing games by not publicly announcing his 2024 plans, while also taking credit for the governor’s successful rise. Trump continued his critique, calling DeSantis an “average” governor and condemning his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic – one of the governor’s signature achievements touted on the campaign trail. DeSantis is “an average REPUBLICAN Governor with great Public Relations, who didn’t have to close up his state, but did, unlike other Republican Governors,” Trump wrote in a lengthy statement. By winning a once-swing state by historic margins, DeSantis has a wide swath of Republican-backers urging him to make a bid for the White House, even if Trump enters the race early. However, regardless of what DeSantis decides, it’s clear that the former president is threatened by Gov. DeSantis and his propitious trajectory that could derail Trump’s own presidential ambitions. Additionally, some are concerned Trump’s attacks on the Florida governor will distract from the key U.S. Senate race in Georgia between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker that’s headed to runoff on December 6, ultimately hurting the GOP’s chances. Others, including Trump-aligned Republicans, say by speaking openly and critically of DeSantis, he will lose a portion of his base support, especially in Florida, which is vital for any candidate’s electoral path to victory.
DeSantis’ electoral war chest
As former President Donald Trump is likely to make a 2024 presidential run and Gov. DeSantis still mum on his ambitions after his Election Day victory, the incumbent governor is well-poised to take on Trump. In addition to his resounding triumph that could serve as a springboard for his presidential ambitions, DeSantis maintains a war chest of $90 million in campaign funds – money that can be transferred to a federal race via super PACS, if he ultimately decides to run. The strong financial headstart is the remaining balance of a record-breaking $200 million raised over his reelection bid and roughly $100 million spent to win a second term. Likely raising more money than any gubernatorial candidate in American history, DeSantis has proved to be a fundraising juggernaut – a vital requirement behind any successful campaign for national office. It’s believed the $90 million remaining in the bank will be used to seed the beginnings of a White House run. Additionally, the national Republican Governors Association has poured more than $20 million into DeSantis’ campaign when the incumbent was already sitting on record stockpiles of cash and well-ahead of his Democratic challenger in the polls. In fact, the group gave more money to the Florida governor than any other in the country, including those locked in competitive races. The Republican Governors Association’s infusion of cash to the incumbent governor late in his reelection race is likely to prime the coffers ahead of an anticipated 2024 bid. Further, DeSantis’ ability to attract funds from national donors, such as millionaire and billionaire financiers, add to his strength as a national candidate and likely boosts the GOP’s overall fundraising efforts. One donor, Billionaire hedge fund manager Ken Griffin was a large contributor to the Florida governor’s campaign and has urged DeSantis to run for higher office. Despite backing Donald Trump’s presidential bid, he ruled out supporting another race, saying that “it’s time for America to move on” from Trump.
State revenue exceeds expectations despite Hurricane Ian
Tax collections in the state for September totaled $4.07 billion, smashing projections by $471.2 million as consumer spending continued despite rising costs and a historically high inflation rate. The report released last week shows economic activity was not impacted by Hurricane Ian’s devastating landfall in late September as gains in sales taxes propelled general-revenue collections past expectations. The decades-high inflation rate, leading to increased prices of goods, has elevated sales tax revenue, but such collections are likely to decline as consumers move to non-taxable necessities such as groceries and medical services. Of the $471.2 million surplus, sales tax collections amounted for $301.4 million while corporate income taxes delivered $157.7 million more than estimates. Beverage taxes and earnings on investments comprised of the remaining overage.
Florida’s Cuban migrant crisis
A dozen Cuban migrants landed on the sands of Miami Beach last Thursday after making the ocean voyage in a homemade boat – the latest of nearly a dozen landings reported in South Florida last week alone. The region, especially the Florida Keys, has seen an uptick in deparate Cuban migrants seeking refuge, with nearly 1,000 such individuals being intercepted by U.S. Border Patrol since October 1. Separately, the U.S. Coast Guard has intercepted an additional 1,374 Cuban migrants between the Keys and Cuba in the same time period. The number of migrants captured on the water is expected to double 2021’s numbers – making it the largest maritime retreat from Cuba in nearly a decade. The Keys have seen migrant landings surge 450% and this has added to the stresses on local authorities who must ensure public safety following arrivals. According to U.S. policy, those fleeing the island nation are to be sent back to Cuba after being detained, but immigration officials have become overburden among the flood of newcomers. In addition to the stresses placed on law enforcement entities, rescue workers are often dispatched to intervene when boaters become trapped or encounter trouble on their journey to Florida. This has also strained federal immigration resources and state wildlife officials who are tasked with removal of derelict vessels. Staffing levels have not been able to keep up with the surge. Experts believe Cuba’s inflamed totalitarian political environment is the driving force behind the mass exodus of migrants. Intensifying economic anguish, crumbling infrastructure, increasing oppression, and diminishing optimism have pushed those seeking exile to make the dangerous voyage across the Straits, which claimed the lives of at least 65 people in the 2021 fiscal year. An electric-grid crisis, resulting in hours-long rolling blackouts and sparking widespread protests, is the latest issue plaguing the communist nation that has already been grappling with worsening economic despair from the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall heightened anti-regime sentiment and depressed outlook among Cuban nationals is likely to continue sending a constant wave of migrants to the Sunshine State.
Judge dismisses Ag Commissioner’s legal challenge on guns, marijuana
A U.S. district judge has rejected a lawsuit filed by Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and others that challenged a federal ban on medical-marijuana patients buying and possessing firearms. In a 22-page ruling, the judge that granted a request by the U.S. Department of Justice to dismiss the lawsuit, after Commissioner Fried alleged the prohibitions violate Second Amendment rights. Possession of marijuana, even for medical purposes, remains illegal under federal law and is classified as a Schedule I drug. Whereas in Florida, a 2016 constitutional amendment permits individuals to obtain medical pot. This disparity between federal and state law means medical marijuana patients cannot purchase or possess firearms since they are using an illegal drug. The U.S. District Court denied the lawsuit on the grounds of the U.S. Constitution’s Supremacy Clause, which forbids state law from making anything legal that federal law makes illegal.
Florida loses thousands of jobs to California
Despite a nationwide trend of companies and new residents flocking to the Sunshine State, California has poached one aerospace and defense company that originally had plans to bring thousands of jobs to the Space Coast. Boca Raton-based Terran Orbital Corp., a satellite design and manufacturing company, has abandoned plans to expand and build a $300 million, 660,000 square-foot satellite production facility in Brevard County. Instead, the company has decided to move the facility to Irvine, California, adjacent to Terran Orbital’s existing building there. Terran Orbital’s expansion in Central Florida would have delivered 2,100 high-paying jobs and tens of millions of dollars in construction and development to the area. The Florida facility was slated to be one of the largest satellite manufacturing complexes in the world.
Brevard County Commission agrees to spend COVID dollars on infrastructure
The outstanding balance of federal stimulus money from the COVID-19 pandemic in Brevard County is about $39.5 million and now, most of those remaining dollars will go towards upgrading storm and sewer infrastructure. The County Commission voted to approve the second batch of ARPA funding plan to go toward a list of recommended projects identified by staff. Brevard County will allocate $23 million in ARPA funds to be used for infrastructure upgrades, as the remaining $16.5 million will go toward revenue replacement, parks and recreation, affordable/workforce housing, an animal hospital, funding concept plans, and upgrading a maintenance facility. In total, the county has received over $220 million from federal ARPA aid packages since 2021.
Publix sees sales growth but lower earnings
Lakeland-based Publix Super Markets has maintained strong sales growth in 2022, likely buoyed by inflation-induced rise in prices. For the third-quarter that ended on September 24, net sales grew 9.2% to $13 billion, up from $11.9 billion during the same period in 2021. Net sales were also 0.8% higher than the previous quarter of 2022. Third-quarter comparable-store sales rose 7.6% during this period, all contributing to Publix’s year-to-date sales at $39.2 billion. The prior-year period in 2021 saw total sales at $35.4 billion. However, earnings for the supermarket chain were bruised as stock market volatility impacted its bottom line as the share price dropped nearly 5% from August 1. Net income for the third-quarter of 2022 totaled $394.1 million, a $462.8 million hit from a year ago. Year-to-date net income across the nine-month period sits at $1.6 billion, well below $3.4 billion during the same timeframe in 2021.
Jet manufacturer Bombardier expands presence in Florida
This week, Canadian-French business jet manufacturer Bombardier has opened a new service center at Miami-Opa-Locka Executive Airport, moving operations from Broward County to Miami-Dade. The relocation from the company’s Fort Lauderdale International Airport facility brings 300 high-paying aerospace jobs to Miami-Dade in a space quadruples their Florida footprint. The 300,000 square-foot service facility provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul capabilities for all Bombardier business aircraft. Bombardier says the new facility will serve both the U.S. and Latin American markets for their business jet needs.
Fort Myers’ Southwest Florida International Airport reports second-best September ever
Passenger traffic at Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW) in Fort Myers fell 6.5% compared to September 2021, but remains the second-best September ever in the airport’s 39-year history. The decrease in passenger traffic was likely impacted by Hurricane Ian, which forced the airport to shutdown operations for three days. Despite this, 515,077 travelers passed through Southwest Florida International in September 2022. The airport did see another decline in passenger traffic in June 2022, reporting 21% fewer travelers than a year ago. However, most importantly, year-to-date traffic for RSW is up 10% compared to the same period in 2021 and the airport tallied a record March with more than 1.5 million passengers.
Florida’s economic dependence on forests
Of Florida’s more than 47,000 farms and ranches across 9.7 million acres, one could reasonably assume citrus is the state’s top agricultural commodity and leading export. However, they would be wrong. The University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences conducted an economic study that shows that forestry and forest products dominate the agricultural commodity space in Florida. The state’s 17 million acres of forestland comprises about 50% of total land area and the forest products industry adds $25 billion to Florida’s economy every year – more than any other agricultural commodity. There are over 5,000 items containing products derived from forests and the industry provides more than 124,000 jobs in the state.
Florida’s first and only snow park returns to Pasco County
Dade City in Pasco County has the exclusive title of being the home of Florida first and only snow park, Snowcat Ridge, and it will return for its third year of fun on November 11. The alpine snow park features a 60-foot tall, 400-foot long tubing hill, an Alpine Village, and a 10,000-square-foot indoor dome filled with real snow, ice skating, and private igloos for rent. The snow park has large machines that compress air and produce thousands of pounds of icy snow every day. The winter wonderland is the perfect escape from the 80-degree temperatures that Florida routinely sees in late fall and early winter. It features sliding on Snowy Slopes, an indoor play area, ice skating and snowball play. Prices for general admission tickets to Snowcat Ridge vary by date, but start as low as $26.95. The park will remain open on select dates through February 26.
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